My best guess at USAU seeding.
October 4, 2022 by charlie eisen hood in Analysis with comments
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Now that the Regionals are finished, it’s time to turn our attention to the National Championships. It’s already been three years since we had a normal regular season with rankings. Let’s go back to the algorithm for ranking, folks! The language around ranking is the same as it was in 2019: It’s mostly about regular season performance and rankings, and “first come first serve at Regionals will be seriously considered in determining ranking for Nationals, but won’t be binding”.
I do my best to follow the USA Ultimate guidelines for my qualifier predictions: qualifiers after USAU Regionals carry a very high weight, head-to-head wins matter on the sidelines, and it’s considered historic success. We do not explicitly try to avoid regional confrontations.
Let’s get started right away with the groups generated by my intended seeding.
| SWIMMING POOL | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
|---|---|---|---|
| fury (1) | reverse (2) | Molly Brown (3) | Phoenix (4) |
| Traffic (8) | 6xers (7) | Brute Squad (6) | scandal (5) |
| night lock (12) | Grain (11) | riot (10) | Schwe (9) |
| Patch (13) | Nemesis (14) | ozone (15) | popular (16) |
1. Fury of San Francisco
Fury is once again at the top of the leaderboard and hasn’t lost a game. They have wins over Flipside and Molly Brown. The undisputed #1 seed.
2. The other side of San Diego
The new program already looks like a powerhouse. Although they are quite a ways behind Molly Brown in ranking points, their only losses this season have been to Fury, and they beat Molly 15-12 in their only meeting. USAU has traditionally leaned more on H2H for the best seeds.
3. Denver Molly Brown
Losses to Fury and Flipside. A win over Phoenix. Easy call on seed #3.
4. Raleigh Phoenix
Phoenix is #4 in the ranking and crushed Scandal in their most recent match. They also have an H2H loss to Molly.
5. Scandal in Washington D.C.
#5 in the ranking. 1-1 vs Brute Squad. 1-0 against 6xers. Clear seed #5.
6. Boston Brute Squad
Yes, the 6ixers are ranked ahead of the Brute. And Brute lost to 6ixers in Pro Champs. But a win at Regionals has to mean something when the teams are so close together. Brute should get seed #6 for winning the northeast.
7. Toronto 6xers
Very clearly it will go at #6 or #7.
8. Vancouver Traffic
#8 in the ranking, more than 100 points below 6ixers. Northwest Champions. Clear seed #8.
9. Portland Schwa
2nd place in the Northwest. They’re a few points behind Riot in the algorithm, but they’re 2-0 against Riot and both wins at Regionals. They will definitely be seeded before Seattle.
10. Riots in Seattle
#9 in the ranking, well ahead of Grit in points.
11. Washington D.C. Grit
There is no reason to stray from the rankings here.
12. San Francisco Night Lock
#12 in the ranking.
13. Pittsburgh Patch
Right behind Nemesis in the rankings, but owns an H2H win over them.
14. Chicago Nemesis
Just following the rankings here.
15. Atlanta Ozone
Ranked 5 places ahead of Pop.
16. Minneapolis Pop
The light background seed.