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NFL Playoff Divisional Round Betting Strategies
Bet on the favorites
There are many reasons to love the Eagles in this game, including the 48-22 thrashing Nick Sirianni’s team gave Brian Daboll’s team in Week 14. However, Jets fans who suffered both runs in the Giants Super Bowls in 2007 and 2011 remind the Giants have a knack for winning playoff games they are expected to lose big, including a 2007 Divisional Round win over the Dallas Cowboys, who had beaten them twice. times in the regular season.
The perception that it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season is somewhat mythical. Since 1990, when the playoffs switched to the current round-by-round format (except for the addition of the seventh seed and reduction to one bye, which began last season), teams that beat a divisional opponent twice in the regular season they were 15-9 when meeting them for the third time in the playoffs, a 62.5% win rate.
This would bode well for the Eagles, but Philadelphia struggled a bit down the stretch with the injury to Jalen Hurts. All eyes will be on the No. 2, who had an MVP-caliber season but suffered a shoulder injury that doesn’t appear to be 100% complete despite Hurts’ absence from the disabled list this week.
Much like Quinnen Williams for the Greens and Whites, the Giants had their own breakout of interior defensive linemen; while Quinnen clinched first-team All-Pro honors, former first-round pick Dexter Lawrence earned a second-team designation after posting a monster season. Lawrence is by far the best defensive player on the Giants, ranking second among IDL with a staggering 19.1% rush pass win rate (tied with Aaron Donald) and second with 63 pressures. He, too, had a nearly identical pressing rate to Quinnen’s (12.2% vs. 12.3%). Lawrence was also a beast in the running game, clogging up the middle like a true 0 technique and allowing other defenders to dart at the ball.
Ultimately, I think it’s going to be the Eagles defense that walks away in this game. The Giants’ offensive line is shaky despite having a second-team All-Pro left tackle in Andrew Thomas. Rookie right tackle Evan Neal has mirrored Thomas’ rookie struggles, allowing seven sacks and a dastardly 8.6% rush rate. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defensive line posted a masterful 70 sacks, falling two shy of the NFL record set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. Expect this to be the latest factor to make a difference.
That being said, the Eagles were the last in the NFL that the EPA allowed QBs to run the ball. The Giants have heavily involved Daniel Jones’ legs in their offense, as he rushed for 703 yards at a 5.3 YPC average during the regular season and added 81 yards on 13 rushing attempts without taking a knee against the Vikings in the wild-card round. .
There is a chance for the Eagles to win this game outright but the Giants cover it. The Giants were 10-3-1 in one-run games this season, including the playoffs, and 0-4 in multi-run games, including the aforementioned blowout loss to Philadelphia. The Giants’ style of play is controlling time of possession and running the ball well, which often keeps games close, especially since Daniel Jones has limited his turnovers this season.
Learn from Giants HC Brian Daboll
If there’s one message the Jets can take from the Giants’ turnaround this season, it’s how a good offensive scheme can get the most out of players. Daniel Jones didn’t magically become a top-tier QB in 2022; rather, Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka devised an offensive plan that suits his strengths, including shooting up the middle and using his legs.
They run variations of the same plays over and over again, but they know how to match the play to the defense and add little details to keep Jones comfortable and the defense guessing.
Whoever the Jets bring in should have similar ability. With John Harbaugh’s proclamation that Lamar Jackson is “back to 200%” and will have a say in the Ravens’ offensive coordinator position, Derek Carr is the most likely candidate for the Jets’ starting quarterback position.
Josh McDaniels’ misuse of Carr in 2022 underscores the need for a coordinator who knows how to adapt rather than stubbornly stick to his scheme. This was Mike LaFleur’s biggest flaw.